If ACA was repealed…Impact on Federal and State $$$

Posted: May 12, 2016  

I am frequently asked, “What will happen to my health plan if the Affordable Care Act ‘Obamacare’ is repealed?”

If repeal was to occur and health insurance goes back to the way it was in 2013 (pre-ACA), The Urban Institute Studies, funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation “The cost of ACA Repeal”, projects:

  • Federal spending on health care for those under age 65 (non-elderly) would decrease by -21% ($90 Billion) by 2026.
  • By 2021, the number of uninsured would increase by 81% (24 million people).
  • Approximately 9.4 million would loss tax credits for private plans.
  • Less health care would be provided to modest and low income families.
  • State spending would increase by $68.5 billion by 2026.
  • In Virginia:

By year 2021, the number of uninsured would increase by 54% (321,000 people), this is just below the national average of 56.9%.

  • State spending on Medicaid would remain about the same, approximately $4.5 billion, as Virginia is a non-expansion state.
  • Uncompensated Care Costs will increase due to the increase in uninsured patients in VA:
    • Federal cost will increase from $805 to $1,440 (million)
    • State/Local cost will increase from $503 to $902 (million)
    • Providers cost will increase from $705 to $1260 (million)

Additional findings:

  • Employer sponsored plans would not change much, projected lower by 700,000 people (national). This erosion in trend is due to the costs for health care still growing faster than income.
  • With the 2010 provision that allowed children to stay on their parents plan until age 26, an additional 1 million young adults would be uninsured without ACA.

With uncertainty looming on the future of ACA, whether it’s a benefit or loss depends on the individual situation. As advocates for our clients and communities, we will be here to help figure it out together just as agents and brokers have done for decades past.